Various forms of Media News are saying how bad the 2020 Chinese Coronavirus is, with some worrying if it could wipe out populations, but is it really that bad?
So far, there have been 132 deaths in this 2020 outbreak.
In the 2002 coronavirus outbreak, that also started in China, there were 774 deaths in total.
BUT...
Up to 650,000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), the World Health Organization and global health partners.
As at 3rd April 2021, there have now been 131.3 million COVID-19 cases worldwide, with 2.9 million reported deaths.
A 2019 study estimated 99,000 to 200,000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ )
Maybe we should estimate at about 150,000.
Influenza positivity rates in specimens tested (a standard metric of community flu activity) fell 98% in 2020 during March 1-May 16 relative to Sept 29, 2019-Feb. 29, 2020, plummeting from a median of 19.34% to 0.33% ( https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/uritheflu/88676 )
If flu rates dropped by that same 98% worldwide, then that 150,000 flu deaths in 2019 would drop to about 3,000 in 2021.
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