Many News reports are highlighting the negative side of the very recent IMF economic reports, taking account of the current COVID-19 pandemic.
An example being the IMF’s prediction of an 8.1% shrinking of the Lithuanian economy, in 2020.
But the headlines miss the projected 2021 recovery of 8.2% in 2021.
This results in a slight increase by 2021 of 0.1%.
Ten Countries show an increase by 2021, according to IMF figures, and these are:
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- Indonesia down by 0.5% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.7% by 2021.
- Malaysia down by 1.7% in 2020, then up by 9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.3% by 2021.
- Serbia down by 3% in 2020, then up by 7.5% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.5% by 2021.
- Malta down by 2.8% in 2020, then up by 7% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.2% by 2021.
- Korea down by 1.2% in 2020, then up by 3.4% in 2021, giving a total increase of 2.2% by 2021.
- Bulgaria down by 4% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total increase of 2% by 2021.
- Hungary down by 3.1% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 1.1% by 2021.
- Saudi Arabia down by 2.3% in 2020, then up by 2.9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.6% by 2021.
- Estonia down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 7.9% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.4% by 2021.
- Lithuania down by 8.1% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 0.1% by 2021.
The remainder show a decrease, from as low as 0.1% up to a decrease of 4.9%, by 2021.
These are:
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- Luxembourg down by 4.9% in 2020, then up by 4.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.1% by 2021.
- Latvia down by 8.6% in 2020, then up by 8.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.3% by 2021.
- Poland down by 4.6% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.4% by 2021.
- Singapore down by 3.5% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
- Ireland down by 6.8% in 2020, then up by 6.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
- Denmark down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
- Taiwan down by 4% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.5% by 2021.
- Australia down by 6.7% in 2020, then up by 6.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.6% by 2021.
- Thailand down by 6.7% in 2020, then up by 6.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.6% by 2021.
- Cyprus down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 5.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.9% by 2021.
- Hong Kong down by 4.8% in 2020, then up by 3.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 0.9% by 2021.
- Nigeria down by 3.4% in 2020, then up by 2.4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1% by 2021.
- Romania down by 5% in 2020, then up by 3.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.1% by 2021.
- United States down by 5.9% in 2020, then up by 4.7% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
- Slovak Republic down by 6.2% in 2020, then up by 5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
- Iceland down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.2% by 2021.
- New Zealand down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 5.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.3% by 2021.
- Germany down by 7% in 2020, then up by 5.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.8% by 2021.
- South Africa down by 5.8% in 2020, then up by 4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 1.8% by 2021.
- Canada down by 6.2% in 2020, then up by 4.2% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2% by 2021.
- Russia down by 5.5% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2% by 2021.
- Japan down by 5.2% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.2% by 2021.
- Switzerland down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.2% by 2021.
- Belgium down by 6.9% in 2020, then up by 4.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.3% by 2021.
- Brazil down by 5.3% in 2020, then up by 2.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.4% by 2021.
- UK down by 6.5% in 2020, then up by 4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
- Austria down by 7% in 2020, then up by 4.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
- Belarus down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.5% by 2021.
- Slovenia down by 8% in 2020, then up by 5.4% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.6% by 2021.
- France down by 7.2% in 2020, then up by 4.5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.7% by 2021.
- Euro Area down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 4.7% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.8% by 2021.
- Finland down by 6% in 2020, then up by 3.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 2.9% by 2021.
- Portugal down by 8% in 2020, then up by 5% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3% by 2021.
- Mexico down by 6.3% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3.3% by 2021.
- Spain down by 8% in 2020, then up by 4.3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 3.7% by 2021.
- Ukraine down by 7.7% in 2020, then up by 3.6% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.1% by 2021.
- Croatia down by 9% in 2020, then up by 4.9% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.1% by 2021.
- Italy down by 9.1% in 2020, then up by 4.8% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.3% by 2021.
- Netherlands down by 7.5% in 2020, then up by 3% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.5% by 2021.
- Greece down by 10% in 2020, then up by 5.1% in 2021, giving a total reduction of 4.9% by 2021.
Turkey is missing from the above figures, as they are neither an increase or a decrease. The IMF predicts a 5% decrease in 2020 and a 5% increase in 2021, resulting in no real change.
Five more countries are not even having a predicted drop in 2020, and show these figures:
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- China up by 1.2% in 2020, then up by 9.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 8% by 2021.
- Indonesia up by 0.5% in 2020, then up by 8.2% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7.7% by 2021.
- Philippines up by 0.6% in 2020, then up by 7.6% in 2021, giving a total increase of 7% by 2021.
- India up by 1.9% in 2020, then up by 7.4% in 2021, giving a total increase of 5.5% by 2021.
- Vietnam up by 2.7% in 2020, then up by 7% in 2021, giving a total increase of 4.3% by 2021.
Source Figures: International Monetary Fund (IMF) – World Economic Outlook, April 2020
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